Why I'm skeptical with Tesla critics

"gettingoldercarguy" (gettingoldercarguy) 10/16/2020 at 20:28 • Filed to: None

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Teslas are fantastic cars coupled to fanatical owners, an eccentric CEO and and some serious build quality issues that need to be resolved. However, this article and the chart shows why I am skeptical about the many who take shots at Tesla.

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > gettingoldercarguy 10/16/2020 at 20:34

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[snaps neck]

Who is the Leader - 404 / Blog No Longer Available > gettingoldercarguy 10/16/2020 at 20:35

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They succeeded in ramping up production far more than I thought they would. I’m impressed with how they handled the challenges of producing the 3 at volume but they’ve still got a long way to go.

gettingoldercarguy > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo 10/16/2020 at 20:35

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Sorry, couldn’t figure out how to rotate the picture.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > gettingoldercarguy 10/16/2020 at 20:39

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Better tl;dr it for us... unless you mean everything on the pro-Tesla si de of the ledger is “distorted”, “twisted beyond comprehension” and “impossible to discern”.

I figure every single statement Tesla has ever disclosed is embellished by at least 55%.

dogisbadob > gettingoldercarguy 10/16/2020 at 20:43

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Go to photos and there should be a rotate button on the menu bar at the top

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 10/16/2020 at 20:43

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Well, I don't assume any company/corporation/gubment is telling the whole truth at any time.

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo 10/16/2020 at 20:44

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Come to think of it, pretty much anyone you interact with in person is also probably a liar...

[Opens beer]

gettingoldercarguy > dogisbadob 10/16/2020 at 20:45

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Not available on my phone

gettingoldercarguy > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 10/16/2020 at 20:46

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These numbers are not from tesla.  I can't make a reply if you haven't looked at it.

Tripper > gettingoldercarguy 10/16/2020 at 20:47

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The day I listen to CR about cars...

Nauraushaun > gettingoldercarguy 10/16/2020 at 20:48

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Sometimes the owners are the biggest problem. There’s a certain Japanese brand known for building FWD economy cars that’s often associated with misuse of the term “racecar”. Another that builds some unusually rugged off road vehicles.

They’re good cars but they aren’t as good as owners think they are. Which makes us nice reasonable regular folk knee-jerk away from them .

Tesla is one of those. Yes they’ve done amazing things to a staid industry, but in the wake of fanatical owners bullying anyone who speaks bad about them? Not cool

facw > gettingoldercarguy 10/16/2020 at 20:48

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Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > gettingoldercarguy 10/16/2020 at 20:50

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You can't rotate your images/screenshots/etc on your cameral/photo app? Brutal phone.

fintail > gettingoldercarguy 10/16/2020 at 20:59

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I think Tesla is a fantastic idea, but the cars won’t be fantastic until the build quality is resolved (and maybe the design is evolved), and the owner isn’t eccentric, he’s an above-the-law kook who’d have been legally ruined or in jail if he wasn’t wealthy.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > gettingoldercarguy 10/16/2020 at 21:11

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Well, it’s difficult to read in that configuration.

Based on the “look at the really long bar on the bar chart for the Model 3", I assume it’s the usual Cult view of LOOK! TESLA HAS A 95% MARKET SHARE— THEY ARE SO FAR AHEAD!

Of course, for those of us with graduate degrees from Stanford and CalTech in Tech Marketing and Finance , who’ve spent years studying how tech markets emerge? (I worked in venture capital on both sides of the table for a number of years, as well as corporate development for a Fortune 100 Company on the M&A side) A single share player holding 95% is a really bad sign for healthy growing tech markets. Growing tech markets always have at least three viable players— all growing and all profitable—. Pick any sustainable category... and the market always has room for a “Leader” an “Innovator” and a “Value Substitute”.

Apple and Samsung in phones.

IBM and Compaq and Dell in Computers for years.

Write this down. When you have a 90% share player in a “huge growth market”? And NOBODY makes any money? That’s an ominous sign.

No, that chart tells you what the serious money studying this already knows— and what Toyota and Honda knows—- if this whackjob can blow through $75 BILLION in VC money and subsidies, have a 90% share, and still manage never to make a single dime actually building cars? It’s a messed up, VC distorted market that can’t thrive without something new.

Breakthrough batteries? Fuel Cells? New motor type? But in this current form, and the lack of mainstream adoption? It’s a messed up market that can’t sustain itself without somebody making operating margins on it.

I know you disagree. Many do. That’s why it’s a $450 Billion Fad Equity in a company that can’t make profit from its core products.

(And the really weird thing is that Model 3 sales in the US are stalled.  S and X are in decline... all the growth is in Y... another ugly leading indicator.)

ranwhenparked > Who is the Leader - 404 / Blog No Longer Available 10/16/2020 at 21:18

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The trouble is, volume has increased faster than their quality control can keep up with

Jb boin > gettingoldercarguy 10/16/2020 at 21:30

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The US market is still lagging behind in term of EV and the Teslas (even the M odel 3) are still relatively expensive cars.

I n Europe, sales from the same period have 7 different models from 7 different manufacturers (only two from the same group/alliance) that sold more than 10k cars while there is only 3 Teslas selling more than 10k vehicles in the US.

As a comparison, here the Zoé starts at 33k€ including VAT (but without government help to buy electric cars) and the Model 3 starts just under 50k€, knowing that the government help is limited to vehicles under 50k€.

Nick Has an Exocet > gettingoldercarguy 10/16/2020 at 21:39

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I’m not skeptical of their sales. I’m skeptical that it’s a good idea for a consumer to buy one. B etween the build quality, CEO, climate credit model, and seeming preferential treatment from the government, I’m a hard pass on that dawg. I’m also not really into heavy-ass battery cars. I don’t want a 32 00lb Miata. That’s not a Miata.

On top of all that, I’m done with giving more money to narcissist CEOs - even ones with good intentions. It’s bad for workers. 

https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/narcissistic-ceos-weaken-collaboration-integrity#:~:text=Plenty%20of%20venerated%20CEOs%2C%20from,to%20win%20at%20all%20costs.

themanwithsauce - has as many vehicles as job titles > gettingoldercarguy 10/16/2020 at 21:56

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A) Just because you’re #1 doesn’t mean you aren’t also problematic as fuck

B) Tesla being #1 means it should have fewer problems than everyone else, not more.

So given A + B, I get to C) Tesla has expanded too fast, and puts more emphasis on image than product. This does not mean that their product is strictly bad, but that their known quality issues, poor production efficiency, quasi-legal branding of their “autopilot” system, and bad customer relations are problems they should be dealing with before being all cute with “Short shorts” and car summoning functions and the like.

I fully agree some people harp on them just to harp on them, but those numbers do nothing to make me feel more skeptical about the critics. It’s been well established they’re #1 in electric cars since that’s all they do. But maybe the reality is they started their electric-only car company a decade too soon.

gettingoldercarguy > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 10/16/2020 at 21:56

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I don’t entirely disagree with you. I do think arguing from a position of authority is not the best argument though. Do I think they’re overvalued? Yep. Do I think there is at the minimum, some nefarious play sponsored by manufacturers to mitigate their success? Yes as well. I just keep going back to all the other startups that lost money time and time again...until they didn’t. Remember when people said Amazon would never turn a profit?

Then I look at how much money the big players are putting into battery tech now. They’re playing catch up to tesla and everybody knows it.

As for Honda and Toyota, how much have they sunk into hydrogen and what profit have they made from it?

gettingoldercarguy > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo 10/16/2020 at 21:58

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Figured it out, screaming children and all

gettingoldercarguy > Nick Has an Exocet 10/16/2020 at 22:01

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I agree with all of that. There’s no way I’ll buy a tesla.

gettingoldercarguy > Nick Has an Exocet 10/16/2020 at 22:01

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Oh yeah, thanks for the correction on my typo.

gettingoldercarguy > Tripper 10/16/2020 at 22:02

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Cr?

themanwithsauce - has as many vehicles as job titles > themanwithsauce - has as many vehicles as job titles 10/16/2020 at 22:09

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Okay I pop back onto the front page and I see this -

https://jalopnik.com/elons-vegas-loop-runs-afoul-of-pesky-safety-regulations-1845397318

And I am reminded of a very simple, yet elegant rebuttal that an old boss of mine would ask in meetings. If someone came up with a plan that had some shaky results, but the person was still hyping it up, my boss would calmly ask to see one of the results slides or data pages or whatever and then ask “You achieved this.....but what had to be sold or cancelled to make this happen ? What other cost was paid to get this to happen ” And that captures my feelings for Tesla in the past 5 years. Because it’s not about never taking a risk and only doing the “safe bet”, it’s about making sure you learn fro m mistakes and try and make better decisions going forward. If you’re holding a 13 in blackjack and the dealer is showing a king, you don’t double down on a hit. An d that’s Tesla - nothing ever gets finished or polished - just launch it, and deal with the fallout later.

Yes, Elon, you deployed your autopilot system.....But at what cost?

Sure, Tesla, you’re #1 by a large margin in the industry.....Bu t at what cost?

Oh, look, Elon made a tunnel in las vegas.....But at what cost?

I definitely agree people have been trying to make Tesla look bad with staged tests and falsified reports form day one. I don’t for one second disagree with that, and the consumer numbers say those faked tests weren’t taken seriously enough. But I can’t also look at the company’s own decisions and feel like they’re a good company I want to see succeed. I want the people who work for Tesla to succeed, but I won’t support this mess as a consumer...

Chariotoflove > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 10/16/2020 at 22:11

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Don’t mince words.  How do you really feel?

gettingoldercarguy > themanwithsauce - has as many vehicles as job titles 10/16/2020 at 22:16

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I agree with what you said

Tripper > gettingoldercarguy 10/16/2020 at 22:20

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Is this not consumer reports?

gettingoldercarguy > Tripper 10/16/2020 at 22:23

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Nah, car and driver

Roadkilled > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo 10/16/2020 at 22:30

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Probably?

gettingoldercarguy > Roadkilled 10/16/2020 at 22:43

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He too is lying. ;-)

Tripper > gettingoldercarguy 10/16/2020 at 22:48

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Ah the scale in the bottom right threw me off. Disagree on them being “fantastic” though. A bunch of dudes at work have em, S, Y, and X. Only the newest one has straight panels.

What the company has done and is doing is impressive from a technology standpoint. I’d still take anything from the Germans or Lexus that competes .

Long time Elon hater though. Guys a fucking crook and a clown. 

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > Chariotoflove 10/16/2020 at 23:08

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I gave you a long, nuanced, detailed answer. It is my area of expertise and once, famously, told a VC fund to “stay away from the Clearwire deal” for many of the same reasons.

“Every bet on Clearwire (because Intel was already in— famous for hopping out of deals as fast as they got in ) is a bet against Qualcomm. I think that’s a lousy bet because you are saying Qualcomm will fail on 4G. Qualcomm’s bigger, stronger, better run and has access to money Intel can only dream of ”

The dumbasses proceeded to vaporize $2 00M by not paying attention to that actual game. The game here with Tesla is to “fake it until you make it”— and hope you don’t recognize that every single model they’ve ever built has saturated within 3 quarters of launching. None of that is a positive leading indicator. They will sell a lot of Mod Y, coming mainly on the loss of Model 3 sales. Palm did that with Palm Pilot models, too.

Put in the Clearwire context, all the Tesla hoopla is basically a bet that Toyota can’t do math. I think that’s a terrible bet. 2025 is the year the cobalt chickens come home to roost. Until then TSLA can run to 4000 for all I care— the fundamentals still suck.

And, yeah, I hate the Tesla story because everything is built on a pile of unsustainable lies (like the idea that a car-in-a-tunnel is a better idea than a train. Everybody would be laughing their lattes out their noses if it weren’t Musk pushing the “ loop” thing) which is conning the world into stripping the planet bare of lithium and cobalt to support a very flawed premise.

-Curt

Full disclosure, I retired at 42 after several IPOs and buyouts and spend my time between Montecito, Maui, Park City, London— and my newly built- out ultimate mancave outside Tucson to fuck around with cars and airplanes fulltime.

PS If you love the Tesla story? Great. Buy more. Not everybody does— that’s why it’s so polarizing. (BTW, I made a lot of hobby money betting against Musk for several years until I realized the Cult are really insane.)

I’m done. I’ve got a Stratos to go work on. Have a great weekend.

Roadkilled > gettingoldercarguy 10/16/2020 at 23:13

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If Zoidberg says that he is opening a beer, I believe him.

gettingoldercarguy > Roadkilled 10/16/2020 at 23:24

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That he didn’t say beers tells me he's lying.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > gettingoldercarguy 10/16/2020 at 23:27

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I gave Chariot the long answer, so please humour me and take a read.

Toyota’s got a long term plan— they actually have a 500 year corporate plan. I used to go to Toyoda City in a former life. They’ve recognized that the math (not to mention the cobalt and lithium) simply doesn’t support Musk’s claims (despite perceptions, he’s not really a big picture guy— big dreams, maybe, but Big Planner Architects don’t sleep on the factory floor. ADD narcissists do.).

The objective wasn’t to “make money” on FCEVs to this point. If it was they’d be funding more models and infrastructure— the objective was to learn, on a budget and plan, and refine the fuel cells, catalyst beds and packs . Guess what???... they, Kenworth and the Chinese now have viable million mile cell packs and proof of concepts in Long Beach and across China running 500 miles on 5 minute fueling times. Hydrogen is on a path to under $2/KG in four years— that’s enough to move a car 60-80 miles with current packs. Think 1300 pounds of batteries in an 8000- cell pack to go 350 miles will make sense in a world where hydrogen is cheap, plentiful and under 2 cents per mile— and 10 pounds of H2 will move you 800 miles? I don’t. And, the high sustained torque needed for trucking is a breeze with FCEVs. There’s a reason Musk’s Semi is years behind schedule.... Daimler was vindicated... Musk’s truck can’t cash the checks Elon’s mouth was writing. IN five years? Maybe. FCEV’s will have a 6 year headstart and massively favorable price trends.

Oddly the trucks KW, Toyota and Hyundai are building are much more likely to save the world. Down in LA we took all the cars off the road in April and May. Cool! Smog went down 14%. Why? Because most of the CO2, Nitrous compounds , smog and particulates are from heavy industry-and- trucks. If Musk really wanted to save the world? Build a fuel cell semi and locomotive.

And, yeah, I’ve heard “hydrogen only comes from natural gas”. On an industrial scale that was true 25 years ago. We’ve got dozens of new processes coming online with th at $2/KG figure within reach. That blows the market wide open— more so when every Loves, Pilot, FlyingJ in the country has 5 minute fuel ups for trucking. Really think access to fuel for cars will be a problem then? I don’t.

Anybody that loves the TSLA story can easily buy more— But, I’m actively trying to figure out ways to play the hydrogen boom. It’s coming and, no, not a play on words.

My CV is summarized in the other post. Every word is true. Not everybody on the internet is trolling. Really.

Chariotoflove > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 10/17/2020 at 00:01

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Dude , whoa. I’m not arguing with you. No need to pile on me. I agree with everything you said about Tesla, not because of your resume, but because it made sense to me. I was just chuckling at the vigor and depth of your response. Friendly jibe, buddy, always friendly above all.

Also, now that you’ve outed your situation, you’re nominated to host the next Oppo jamboree at one o f your luxury compounds. Once this virus thing is over, of course.

Chariotoflove > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 10/17/2020 at 00:10

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As an aside to this discussion, it occurs to me to once again emphasize that even if you intend to work in finance or something that doesn’t seem STEM related, it’s still important to get a good science education. Math, Physics, Biology, the answer to every teenager who asks, “when am I ever going to need this?” is  on display in this subject.

gettingoldercarguy > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 10/17/2020 at 00:16

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I read your other reply to chariot and the other above. I thought back in ‘03 that hydrogen was the way to go. Halides would really help move that forward , but I’ve since stopped   following that field, so I don’t know where it wound up . We’ll see how battery tech moves forward. Solid state crap, the potential is there. Fcev sounds great, there’s a shitload of ways to make hydrogen. I’m still amazed at how many big players are getting into the pure ev market if others don’t see it as viable long term. Something is there even if it isn’t technically better. Beta max lost to VHS.

All of that said, my point in this post was while there are valid attacks on musk and tesla, I think there is a not insignificant amount of negative reporting that many times seems suspect. When some of the offending journalists have family that work for the big three, it’s weird.

3point8isgreat > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 10/17/2020 at 00:37

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I was torn on whether batteries or hydrogen would win out long term. And then Airbus announced their hydrogen plans. To me that seals the deal. That guarantees major investment in hydrogen infrastructure and fuel cell development.